High in the barren mountains of the Himalayas, Indian soldiers overlook a broad swath of icy terrain. Gazing back at them are thousands of Chinese soldiers, both protecting what the other side claims. The object of desire, an unmarked landscape which spans thousands of kilometres and stretches from India’s border with Pakistan in the west to India’s border with Myanmar in the east. The tension has not been limited to the glacial stares of those on opposing sides; in 1962 India suffered a devastating defeat by the hands of Chinese forces in a month-long war. A sense of calm was thought to have been secured by a 1996 treaty which banned the use of firearms and explosives on the border. Yet, in 2020 an era of peace came to an end when Indian and Chinese soldiers engaged in large scale almost mediaeval hand to hand fighting which left dozens of soldiers dead. When Chinese soldiers found themselves once again, in what the Indians consider their territory, hundreds of Indian soldiers laid waiting for them with clubs and tasers. As a result, this time the Indian Army was able to beat back the Chinese and only suffered a handful of injuries. How did the Indian reverse its series of losses against the Chinese? Well thanks to unprecedented American cooperation and intelligence sharing.
How Did We Get Here?
Shortly after the 2020 battle in the Himalayas, India signed an intelligence cooperation agreement with the United States and ties began to deepen. So much so that in 2022, American intelligence officials shared with their Indian counterparts that the Chinese were preparing for another land grab. Weeks before the Chinese incursion, India held joint military exercises with the American 11th Airborne Division. While the exercises seemed to aggravate the neighbouring Chinese, an open air concert put on by the Americans within earshot of cold People’s Liberation Army (PLA) soldiers, possibly enraged them and might have pushed Beijing to pour across the border. This time, Indian soldiers aided by American intelligence were able to push them back.
India has warmed to the U.S. and its allies in recent years due to an increasingly antagonistic China who seeks to forcibly set out what it claims are its national boundaries. This has caused a variety of nations in the region, most notably a group known as the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue [QUAD] to develop closer ties in order to counter China. Formed in the wake of the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami, Australia, India, Japan, and the United States banded together to coordinate disaster relief. Over time the partnership developed into something resembling an alliance as the 2021 declaration laid out the spirit of the organisation, “We bring diverse perspectives and are united in a shared vision for the free and open Indo-Pacific. We strive for a region that is free, open, inclusive, healthy, anchored by democratic values, and unconstrained by coercion.” [The Guardian] All four nations have engaged in military exercises and India, after its defeat in 2020, is warming to the idea of growing cooperation.
There is a old Russian proverb that says a man is judged by his deeds, not his words and India is testing the mettle of both the saying and its source. During the Cold War the United States formed close relations with Pakistan in order to counter the Soviets. Although outwardly neutral during the Cold war, India established a profound military relationship with Russia to counter a Pakistan backed by the United States.This military relationship has withstood long after the fall of the Iron Curtain and the communist regime in Moscow. Because of this lasting relationship, India is tethered to Moscow because it relies on the old bear for spare parts to maintain its ageing Russian made arsenal of weapons. The shackles with which India is bonded is reflected by India’s refusal to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and statements delivered by the country’s foreign ministry Subrahmanyam Jaishankar who described the relationship with Russia as “the only constant in global politics.” [VOA]. Yet these comments might be given through gritted teeth, without Russian spare parts India’s military would be critically vulnerable to Chinese or Pakistani aggression. Signs are pointing to the fact that India is trying to upset its historic relationship with Russia by putting an extra effort into building a solid indigenous defence industrial base and cultivating new relationships in the West. These new relationships are bearing fruit with New Delhi buying fighter jets and submarines from France and high end drones and jet engine technology from the US.
Why India?
India’s geographic position will dictate its destiny with the United States. By land, India shares a long border with a region all too familiar with revolution against the central government. Tibet in 1959 revolted against Beijing in a war that would see thousands killed and the Dalai Lama flee to India. After the failed revolt, Tibet now under the central government’s boot, would see sporadic bouts of protests which would be quashed with unrelenting force. If any conflict breaks out over Taiwan, there are Chinese fears and possibly Indo-American shared interests in stirring up trouble over the restive region.
By sea, India’s reach stretches far out into the Indian Ocean which Chinese merchants frequent with tons of oil to fuel the mainland. Over 70% of all Chinese oil imports traverse the vast Indian Ocean and onto the Strait of Malacca which ultimately leads to the south China Sea [CSIS]. This supply could be cut off by American or Indian naval vessels in the event of a future conflict with China. The United States has already signed agreements with India to maintain and repair naval vessels and some officials say this arrangement could grow in the event of a conflict.
What Are The Challenges To Future Cooperation?
While there is a sense of unease in Washington over India’s human rights record, especially with the record of current Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the United States views India as an indispensable partner in its effort to combat the emerging Chinese threat. Due to New Delhi’s value as a partner, American intelligence agencies find themselves in an odd position in which they have to prevent Indian spies from killing dissidents on American soil during the day and then work with the same Indian agencies to contain China at night. Having such disagreements along with such shared strategic interests with the United States locks the two countries in a cold embrace.
Trumping such disagreements, geographies tend to define a country’s destiny and it is the geography of India that will bind it to the United States for generations to come.