The Horn of Africa has long been a region of strategic importance and persistent instability. Ethiopia, once seen as a bulwark of stability in the region, has in recent years become the epicenter of a devastating civil war with far-reaching consequences. The conflict, initially concentrated in the Tigray region, has since escalated into a broader war drawing in neighboring countries and threatening the stability of the entire region. This article provides a detailed analysis of the civil war’s origins, its latest developments, and the wider conflict it has precipitated, with references to recent reports and scholarly analysis.
The roots of the current Ethiopian civil war can be traced to longstanding political and ethnic tensions. The Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) dominated Ethiopian politics for nearly three decades, leading the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) coalition that ruled the country from 1991 to 2018. However, when Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed came to power in 2018, he undertook sweeping political reforms, sidelined the TPLF, and dissolved the EPRDF in favor of the new Prosperity Party.
Tensions escalated rapidly between the federal government and the TPLF. In November 2020, after months of mutual recriminations and provocations, the federal government launched a military offensive in Tigray in response to alleged TPLF attacks on federal military bases. What was expected to be a brief operation quickly devolved into a protracted and brutal conflict, marked by widespread atrocities, famine, and mass displacement.
In November 2022, under intense international pressure, the Ethiopian government and the TPLF signed a peace deal in Pretoria, South Africa. The agreement called for a ceasefire, the disarmament of Tigrayan forces, and the restoration of humanitarian access to Tigray. For a time, this deal led to a significant reduction in large-scale violence and raised hopes of a political settlement.
However, the peace has proven fragile. Reports from early 2024 indicate that fighting has resumed in several parts of northern Ethiopia, particularly in Amhara and Oromia regions, where other armed groups—including the Fano militia and Oromo Liberation Army—have become increasingly active. The Tigray region itself remains tense, with sporadic clashes and a persistent humanitarian crisis. Efforts to implement the peace agreement have faltered amid mutual distrust, incomplete disarmament, and ongoing grievances over issues such as territorial control and accountability for wartime atrocities.
What makes the current phase of the Ethiopian civil war particularly alarming is its spillover into a broader regional conflict. The involvement of Eritrean forces in support of the Ethiopian government during the Tigray war is well-documented. Eritrean troops have been accused of participating in some of the worst atrocities of the conflict, including massacres, sexual violence, and large-scale looting.
In 2024, the war has further spilled across borders. Eritrea remains heavily militarized and has clashed with Tigrayan and Afar forces along its southern border. Sudan, whose own transitional government is fragile, has been drawn into the fray amid border skirmishes with Ethiopian forces in the disputed al-Fashaga region. Both Sudan and Ethiopia accuse each other of supporting rival armed groups, increasing the risk of direct interstate conflict.
Somalia, too, has been affected. Ethiopia’s military presence in Somalia under the African Union Transition Mission is increasingly controversial, as Ethiopia diverts more resources to its internal conflicts. Al-Shabaab, the Islamist militant group, has exploited the chaos to intensify operations in both Somalia and eastern Ethiopia.
The consequences of this multi-layered conflict are dire. As of mid-2024, estimates suggest that over 1.5 million people have been displaced within Ethiopia, with hundreds of thousands fleeing to neighboring countries. Food insecurity and famine conditions persist in Tigray, Amhara, and Afar, compounded by the federal government’s occasional restrictions on humanitarian access.
The regional spillover threatens to destabilize the entire Horn of Africa. The influx of refugees is straining already overburdened support systems in Sudan and South Sudan. Cross-border arms flows, ethnic militias, and proxy conflicts are proliferating. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) dispute over Nile waters, involving Egypt and Sudan, remains unresolved, adding another layer of geopolitical tension.
The international community’s response has been mixed. The United States, European Union, and United Nations have condemned atrocities and imposed targeted sanctions, but their leverage has been limited. Mediation efforts led by the African Union have so far yielded only partial results. Meanwhile, rival powers, including Russia, China, and Gulf states, have sought to expand their influence by supporting various actors within Ethiopia and its neighbors.
Political analysts argue that the Ethiopian civil war and its expansion are symptomatic of deeper structural problems: weak state institutions, unresolved ethnic federalism, and the absence of meaningful mechanisms for political inclusion. The heavy-handed militarization of internal and external disputes has only deepened divisions and made reconciliation more difficult.
Some experts warn that unless Ethiopia and its neighbors pursue genuine dialogue and power-sharing, the region risks sliding into a protracted period of instability, similar to the crises that gripped the Great Lakes and Sahel regions in previous decades.
The Ethiopian civil war, now entering its fourth year, has evolved from a localised conflict into a broader regional war with catastrophic humanitarian, political, and security implications. While recent ceasefires and peace agreements offer a glimmer of hope, the underlying drivers of conflict remain unaddressed. Without sustained international engagement, inclusive dialogue, and accountability for abuses, the Horn of Africa faces a dangerously uncertain future.
