Any planned US annexation of Greenland would give America almost total control over an increasingly vital trading route.
The US government’s recent abduction of Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro has drawn widespread condemnation from those who see it as a breach of international law. These events have been followed particularly closely by the people of Greenland, an island which US president Donald Trump has repeatedly expressed his desire to “do something on (…) whether they like it or not”.
Greenland, which is currently an autonomous territory of Denmark, sits at one end of the Transpolar Sea Route, which some have named the “Polar Silk Road”.
What is the Polar Silk Road?
The Transpolar Sea Route refers to a 3,900 km stretch of ocean spanning from the eastern coast of Greenland to the Bering Strait between the coasts of Alaska, the US and Russia. Travelling along this route would allow for cargo ships to take a much more direct route between the North Atlantic and North Pacific than sailing through the Panama Canal. It is also estimated that recent reductions in the quantity of arctic sea ice, as a result of rising global temperatures, have made the Transpolar Sea Route 1–5 days faster for most ships than more traditional but less direct routes through the Arctic Circle.
The nickname “Polar Silk Road” equates the Transpolar Sea Route with the Silk Road trading route that connected Eastern Europe with the Far East and was central to global trade up until the use of sailing boats for trade became widespread in the 15th Century. It is believed by some economic historians that the opportunities for emerging economies created by the Silk Road were crucial to driving the development of European and Asian societies. While the global economic context surrounding the Polar Silk Road is incredibly different, its economic benefits to whichever nations have access to it could still be highly significant.
Most of the trading vessels which currently sail through the Arctic Circle do so via either the Northeast Passage, which follows the coasts of Norway and Siberia, or the Northwest Passage, which threads through Canada’s northern islands. As well as extending the time taken on each voyage, these indirect routes require shipping companies to adhere to the regulations of either the Russian or Canadian governments as well as international bodies such as the International Maritime Organisation (IMO). This increases the risk of these trade routes being disrupted should tensions worsen between Russia and the West.
Conversely, the Transpolar Sea Route passes entirely through international waters, meaning that any multinational corporations (MNCs) which are able to use it consistently will be less vulnerable to political instability affecting their operations. The Trump administration has proven to be more than happy to implement sanctions on a range of trading partners, even when this risks reciprocal measures being taken against the US. It is therefore highly possible that one or more of the US, Canadian and Russian governments would attempt to establish greater control over which trading vessels are prohibited to use the Northeast and Northwest passages. In light of this, the Transpolar Route presents an increasingly appealing option for trading vessels from the EU or the Greenland, Iceland and United Kingdom (GIUK) gap wishing to sail to the North Pacific.
What might US control of Greenland mean?
In order for the Transpolar Route to be accessible to smaller vessels, there would need to be sufficient facilities on the eastern coast of Greenland for ships to refuel, pick up or deposit cargo and shelter from harsh arctic weather. If the US was to seize control of Greenland, this would give the American government the power to accelerate the rate at which current ports, such as those at Tasiilaq and Ittoqqortoormiit, are expanded and new ones are built. The other end of the route, at the Bering Strait, could also possibly be controlled by US ships stationed in Alaska, potentially allowing the US government to regulate the flow of cargo into and out of the Transpolar Route. The seizure of Greenland would also deprive the EU of control — through Denmark — of one end of the route, which could otherwise be used in future trade negotiations with America.
Cargo shipping remains vital to the global economy. Despite recent advances in technology creating new marketplaces which do not rely on traditional forms of transportation, US imports of primary goods such as oil, industrial metals and grain still rely on cargo shipping networks. These are therefore vulnerable to extreme weather and political turmoil.
Intermediate goods, which are later used in manufacturing, are vital to the revival of secondary industries in the “rust belt” states of the Great Lakes region of the US. These have been electorally crucial to the Republican Party over the last decade, with a large part of President Trump’s voter base believing his unconventional trade policies are necessary to reviving the manufacturing industry in these areas.
Globally, over 80% of international trade relies on some form of maritime transport, according to a UN report from 2021, which estimated that the proportion was highest in developing countries. It is even believed by the European Commission’s official website, Eurostat, that 47% of the value of the EU’s external trade was dependent on international shipping in 2023. This proves that, even in an increasingly digital world, control of maritime trading routes would give any nation or trading block extreme political and economic power.
Previous plans for the Polar Silk Road
The rapid rate of climate change in the Arctic Circle, where temperatures have risen three times faster than the global average, means that the Transpolar Route has only recently become a feasible alternative to the Northeast and Northwest routes. The Chinese icebreaker ship Xue Long was one of the first major ships to use the route in 2012, while developing the “Polar Silk Road” was added as an objective to China’s Belt and Road Initiative in 2017. In December 2025, the China State Shipbuilding Corp unveiled designs for a nuclear-powered icebreaker that would be able to ferry both cargo and passengers through the Arctic Circle.
European access to the Transpolar Route has been made easier by the construction of the Finnafjord Port in Iceland, which was begun by German company Bremenports in 2019. This was done with the explicit aim of giving German trading vessels access to the Transpolar Sea Route if it was to become more accessible without the need for nuclear-powered icebreakers.
A formal annexation of Greenland, or an agreement to take control of shipping on its eastern coast, would give the US control of what may become one of the world’s most profitable trading routes. It would also, however, put the US in direct competition with its political and economic rivals in Europe and further east.
